Comments on: A Report From The Rare Earths Conference In Beijing

By: Digger Barnes

Digger Barnes — Sat, 07 Aug 2010 12:36:40 +0000

Thanks Jack.
Can you recommend a public traded HREE outfit?
Seems that is where the crunch will be.
Thanks
Digg

By: Vladimir Seredin

Vladimir Seredin — Fri, 06 Aug 2010 17:14:03 +0000

Dear reganbaha,

Thanks for your comment. It is clear, that jump of the prices was affected by the Chinese decision on trimming of quotas. However, if I am not mistaken, between the announcement of this decision and the first jump of the prices there have passed 2 weeks.
About many juniors you apparently are right, though among those from them, whose actions have not risen in price last 2 weeks there are also quite serious companies which enjoy the governmental support. But not clearest is silence in mass media and specialized REE blogs, excepting can be metal-pages. Do you would represent what noise has risen if the prices have grown approximately twice for 2 weeks on any other raw materials? And here all easy, despite the fact that these metals were in the centre of general attention the last year.
Best,
Vladimir

By: reganbaha

reganbaha — Fri, 06 Aug 2010 12:27:35 +0000

Since REE quota’s were cut by China, the REE basket prices have dramatically risen as Vladimir points out. The basket prices of several companies I follow have gone from high teens to mid-thirties in the month or so since Chinese quota cuts.

Why haven’t REE junior companies share prices also been affected? There are two companies who have been affected, Lynas (LYC.AX) and Arafura (ARU.AX); which have both almost double in price in the last month. They have both been working on their respective REE assets for at least five years and along with Molycorp will be the the only non-Chinese producers in the next couple of years. LYC are building their processing facilities and ARU are finishing off their BFS.

Unlike all of the other non-Chinese REE juniors, which are still getting excited about grab samples and marginal drill results; and much to the surprise of many US-centric commentators, there is a world outside of the US, and there are companies outside of North America, already well-advanced in the development of REE assets.

It takes a very long time to develop these assets; which is something that the latest batch of REE Juniors, who are internet-cum-Uranium-cum-Phosphate-cum-REE companies will learn in the near future.

So the share prices of realistic Junior REE-companies is increasing along with the rise in basket prices. The other REE-juniors johnny-come-lately’s are floundering, because the only mining that they will ever do is of their share holders pockets, until there is another hot sector, and they change their guise once again.

Choice

By: Vladimir Seredin

Vladimir Seredin — Fri, 06 Aug 2010 10:54:56 +0000

Dear Jack,
Yours ending phrase “If all roads lead to Rome then certainly the home of all metals is now China” is absolutely true, especially when we are talking about technological metals. I had visit to China in June and had seen it my own eyes.
Uppermost I have in view of mining and manufacture Ge at the coal deposit in Inner Mongolia. As you know this rare element is used in thin-film solar cells, LEDs and many other hi-tech applications. I happened on similar Ge-bearing coal deposits earlier, and I have absolutely shaken by picture that I have seen in China. I could not present to myself before such ideal organization of the difficult technological chain which begins with selective mining of Ge-bearing coals and comes to an obtaining superpure metal Ge (99.99999 %!). Industrial Ge Museum is constructed on means from enterprise profit at the industrial complex. This Museum is equipped by hi-tech and gives full presentation about history of this element, raw sources of Ge, technological processes, and fields of Ge-using. And all it were created for last10-12 years which have passed from finding Ge-bearing coals.
The second strong impression was finding stratabound REE-Zr-Nb-Ga ores of new type by the Chinese scientists. It is supposed, that the rare earths contained in the ores as sorbed ions. If this assumption proves to be true, China will receive one more source REE which in the long term can replace REE-deposits in the weathering crusts.
Thus, I completely support your position about necessity as more as possible widely to make use of the Chinese experience. I think that prospecting and development rare metal deposits cannot be effective now without it.
In conclusion I would like to set two questions that may be related to raised problem by you.
What the dramatically grows of REE prices last 2 weeks is connected with?
Why this event almost has not affected in share price of the REE junior companies and has not been commented neither by mass media, nor by REE-blogs, including TMR?
Thank you beforehand.
Sincerely,
Vladimir Seredin

By: marian letcher

marian letcher — Thu, 05 Aug 2010 02:29:16 +0000

Would also like to know Jack’s thoughts on Lynas? ASX

By: Tek

Tek — Thu, 05 Aug 2010 01:38:11 +0000

I found this stunning:
The only non-Chinese rare earth mining venture present was Great Western Minerals Group. Its chairman gave a talk on his ‘mine to market’ strategy, and he told me he was there both because he was invited, and in order to continue negotiations for a strategic alliance with a Chinese refiner, on an African project the goal of which is to supply Great Western’s UK alloy plant, Less Common Metals, with feedstock metals for its operations from GW’s South African venture at Steenkampskraal.

The only one????

By: Don Lay

Don Lay — Wed, 04 Aug 2010 23:29:37 +0000

Jian Zhu:
Not wanting to jump ahead of Mr. Lifton’s response but:
1. the Chinese only have a large supply of lights, not heavies;
2. that 1000 year statistic is old and probably assumed static demand — demand is only increasing.
The most important comment Jack made IMO is that the Chinese are interested in Molycorp supply … think about that for a minute.

By: Jian Zhu

Jian Zhu — Wed, 04 Aug 2010 20:35:28 +0000

hi Jack,
You said that Chinese demand should exceed or meet its domestic supply capability by 2015. However, some said Chinese reserves could meet world demand for 1000 years. Do you know why is that.

By: S Babus

S Babus — Wed, 04 Aug 2010 20:28:10 +0000

Sorry, my comment lost its initial phrase:
The dramatic growth of wind power generation in China reflects the Chinese Government’s commitment to this goal, as expressed in an aggressive national plan and a set of legal, regulatory, and financial incentives to stimulate domestic producers, along with mandated targets for higher reliance on renewable energy sources. Imagine what world demand for REEs would be like should other governments adopt similiarly ambitious policies! [One source for info on Chinese wind power is the website of the Global Wind Energy Council, http://www.gwec.net/index.php?id=125 ]

By: S. Babus

S. Babus — Wed, 04 Aug 2010 20:24:23 +0000

Government’s commitment to this goal, as expressed in an aggressive national plan and a set of legal, regulatory, and financial incentives to stimulate domestic producers, along with mandated targets for higher reliance on renewable energy sources. Imagine what world demand for REEs would be like should other governments adopt similiarly ambitious policies! [One source for info on Chinese wind power is the website of the Global Wind Energy Council, http://www.gwec.net/index.php?id=125 ]