Something I know little about butam interested to learn more.

Also, interested in knowing what you think the best stocks are!

Thank you.

Sincerely,

A

Highlighting Phoscan, excellent!

Here’s a little secret called NPK.V. Whilst they are producing a product for Brazil known as TK or ThermoPotash, they believe they have a process for converting the entire resource into traditional Potash. If that occurs, they will have one of the biggest resources on the globe!

Scoping study on the process is due in early 2012. She’s one to watch! And I think there are public patent applications out, so you can review the conversion process. If that thing works, we’re talking $100 stock potential, like a bluechip, only 34MM shares fully diluted.

It’s going to be hard to avoid dependence on Morocco, given that according to the USGS’ 2011 figures they account for 77% of the 65 Gt global reserve base (2010 production = 0.18 Gt). I wrote an article on this last year to which one guy who works at Morocco’s phosphate company OCP replied in the comments section on the subject of cartels:

“It’s true Moroccan production is ranging 28-30Mt, from which abt 40% is localy proccessed for DAP, MAP, TSP . OCP Group is planning to reach 50Mt by 2015. It is most probable that from the decade 2020 -2030 we’ll see a beginning of shortage of rock phosphate supply, and the threaded countries are North and south america, India, pakistan and china.

No phosphate cartel has been developed for rock phosphate, but an unofficial cartel of phosphoric acid was last year between Morocco and Tunisia to keep phosphoric acid price above 1000$/Mt P2O5, that cartel was broken by tunisian GCT and phosacid was sold 400$-500$ beginning 2nd half 09, now prices are increasing slowly and surely as phosphatic fertilizers market has started to recover.”

http://seekingalpha.com/article/182522-taking-stock-of-phosphorus-and-biofuels

Hello Gary,
Do you have more info about this phosphate in Iraq you’re talking about?
Thanks,
Alex

Dear Jack,

Thanks for your article. It has very interesting comments and phosphate peak is indeed among one of the latest (although controversial) debates within the industry.

However, I am a bit surprised when you say that Morocco had to cease production for three months due to civil turmoil. Tunisia, the world’s 5th largest producer which was badly affected by the unrest, indeed had to stop phosphate rock and fertiliser production between January and April this year.

But Morocco was not affected for that I know (except flooding in January). Morocco produces about 25m. tpa of phosphate and is the world’s biggest exporter of phosphate, notably to India, a huge consumer of fertiliser which has phosphate-poor soil. The country stopping production would indeed be a big source of concern for these reasons. But according to OCP (the Moroccan company which produces phosphate in the country) and end markets, production has never stopped.

Do you have any other info?

Meanwhile, here are some articles on Industrial Minerals website if you are interested in:
http://www.indmin.com/Article/2797677/North-Africa-crisis-spreads-concern-over-Indian-fertilisers.html

http://www.indmin.com/Article/2772519/Unrest-prompts-Tunisia-to-stop-phosphate-production.html

Best regards,

Alex