Comments on: Projected Global Supply Of Rare Earths In 2015 and Beyond

By: Gareth Hatch

Gareth Hatch — Sat, 16 Apr 2011 15:39:39 +0000

Thank you for your “contribution”, prescentus – under that name, as “resko” or the other pseudonyms you’ve used in the past few days ;-)

By: prescentus

prescentus — Sat, 16 Apr 2011 15:16:01 +0000

more home work has to be done rather then talk generic about the magnets. you do not sound convincing

By: Gareth Hatch

Gareth Hatch — Sat, 16 Apr 2011 14:36:19 +0000

resko: hmmm – to which “specific answers” are you referring? Of course there are Nd-based material grades that contain lower Dy content… most manufacturers sell at least 20-30 different grades of Nd-based magnet materials, with a wide variety of coercivities (typically 11-25 kOe) – each produced by altering the Dy content. For folks unfamiliar with the term, coercivity is the ability of the magnet material to resist demagnetization, and is related to the ability to resist temperature effects.

The point of doing work to lower Dy content in Nd-based magnet materials, is to lower the Dy in any given material grade, while maintaining the SAME coercivity in that grade.

If you are the particular former magnet-material researcher that I suspect you to be, “resko”, you should / would have already known that :-)

By: resko

resko — Sat, 16 Apr 2011 12:55:21 +0000

just showing again how little you know about magnets and Dy content, not to mention about the light rare earths….you definitely lost touch with science part and usage of rare earths.
what you can do properly is only a PR about the rare earths….not confusing the audience when a specific answers have to be given.
it is a reality that lower Dy content in magnets exists….
what an analyst???

By: prescient11

prescient11 — Sat, 16 Apr 2011 03:04:06 +0000

Very interesting, although his thoughts on Hoidas Lake remain a mystery to me. And no production from Bear Lodge.

These are some strange figures.

By: Robert Olson

Robert Olson — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 08:32:10 +0000

Interesting article. Confirms Chinese limiting REE exports. Changes dramatic. Price changes dramatic. Despite 9 fold increase in price year over year, China selling less. Why?

Perhaps listening to the Chinese REE experts helps?

Zhang Anwen a leading Chinese government advisor and Deputy Secretary General of Inner Mongolia Rare Earth Guild who in Beijing conference Spring 2010 said:

“Foreign countries should calmly and logically think about this and develop their own mines for their own needs. Our (China) resources are diminishing and we (China) need these minerals for our own use.”

(Minutes 2:46 to 3:20 in the 6:19 minute video)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHs2lGsqFKU&p=19D44B68A08E1850

Reuters article today 22 March 2011:

China Rare Earth Prices Explode as Export Volumes Collapse
Published: Tuesday, 22 Mar 2011 | 3:51 AM ET Text Size
By: Reuters

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China’s exports of rare earth metals burst through the $100,000-per-metric ton mark for the first time in February, up almost ninefold from a year before, while the volume of trade stayed far below historical averages.

Stringer | AFP | Getty Images

China’s squeeze on rare earths, which are used in a wide range of hardware including precision-guided weapons, hybrid car batteries and iPads, has forced prices up dramatically since July last year, when each metric ton fetched a mere $14,405 on average.

The apparent price rises have averaged $10,000 per metric ton per month but accelerated in February, galloping ahead by $34,000 per metric ton, according to Reuters calculations based on data from China’s Customs office.

Last month each metric ton of exports was valued at $109,036, including the cost of insurance and freight, almost half as much again as the average value in January.

The explosion in export values has coincided with a collapse in volumes coming out of China, the source of almost all the world’s rare earth supplies, which has cut export quotas of the 17 rare earth metals and raised tariffs on exports.

China’s actions have infuriated its trading partners but lifted the shares of the few mining and prospecting companies outside China that are well-placed to capitalize on the constriction of Chinese supply.

They include U.S. miner Molycorp [MCP 52.57 7.89 (+17.66%) ], Canada’s Rare Element Resources and Neo Material Technologies [NEM.TO 7.96 0.08 (+1.02%)] and Australia’s Arafura and Lynas.

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But those firms’ share prices have been under pressure this month because Japan’s earthquake and tsunami are expected to temporarily slash demand from China’s biggest customer. In February, 281 metric tons of Chinese exports went to Japan, valued at $38.9 million or $138,406 per ton.

China exported a total of 750 metric tons in February, slightly more than the 647 metric tons shipped in January but otherwise the lowest monthly volume since February 2009, when demand was hit by the global financial crisis.

China’s Customs office changed its method of presenting rare earths exports in its headline data this year, boosting the reported volume by including products made from rare earth metals in the total.

By that method, exports were 2,976 metric tons in February, up by 132 percent from a year before, when the figure did not include rare earth products.

TOPICS:Japan | Metal Commodities | Asia | Commodities | China
SECTORS:Metals and Mining
COMPANIES:Molycorp

By: Gareth Hatch

Gareth Hatch — Thu, 10 Mar 2011 20:32:01 +0000

@Optionsgirl: :-) :-)

@Brian: no, they were not – the numbers were for total REOs only. However, I am working on a new dataset at the moment, that will hopefully answer your specific questions, regarding such projections. Hope to have it done in the next week or two.

@charles wendell: that’s a great question, and my sources tell me that if we include the scrap materials that get put back into the mix at the metal and alloy producers, we’re probably already heading towards the 3,000 t mark just this year. I envisage the number to increase by 2015. I’ve seen some folks estimate that it could be as high as 10% of production, and although I think this is a little ambitious, it’s not impossible.

As for Dy in RE magnets etc – I see a realistic possibility of reduced material intensity for HREE usage in magnets, but I am not optimistic when it comes to LREE or overall REE usage reduction. In addition, per Jevon’s Paradox, any such reduction of usage per unit, could lead to greater adoption of those technologies as a whole, thus canceling out any benefit, to the overall supply situation.

@Marvin Leonardo: the Kvanefjeld project itself is located in Greenland; Greenland Minerals & Energy is listed on the Australian Stock Exchange.

By: Marvin Leonardo

Marvin Leonardo — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 19:54:57 +0000

Hi Gareth,

Is Kvanefjeld / CAN / Greenland Minerals & Energy located in Canada or Australia? Thanks.

By: charles wendell

charles wendell — Sun, 06 Mar 2011 04:41:03 +0000

Gareth,
love the information that you have been distributing on TMR of late, in what seems to be a very unbiased opinion. keep up the good work.
one supply stream that i did not see in the numbers in the info you presented from Dr. Chen’s presentation was REE’s from recycling.
reports that i have read suggest that around 3000 t of REE’s will be available also at 2015.
but i’d like to querry, do you think that a reasonable estimate, or could one presumably figure it to be somewhat more considering developments that are being implemented mainly in Japan, but are being considered also in the EU and somewhat in the US ?
and if i may be at liberty to also ask on the demand side.
Japan is conducting research to reduce Dysprosium by 40% in REE applications, the Austrians recently claimed a breakthrough in Neodymium magnet compostion, GE is working along with the DOE to reduce REE’s in wind turbin construction by 30%.
so i guess what i’m asking do you forsee a possible magnet technology breakthrough that could help alieveate the proposed upcoming shortage
in REE’s like Nd and Dy or at least to help stabilize the demand and can recycling, alibet small, be a contributing factor also?

By: Brian

Brian — Sun, 06 Mar 2011 03:16:01 +0000

Gareth – Where any tables presented with a breakdown of HREO and LREO for current period and projections for 2011-2013/2015 by project/company? I am trying to get a handle on a HREO investment strategy using data that includes the Russian, Brazilian, Indian, Mongolian, and Vietnamese projects.

As always, thanks for all the articles you publish.