Henk: I look forward to hearing back from you after you return for the EVS25 meeting.

Jesse: As I understand it, erbium is used in components for fiber optics and digital communications, as well as in some types of lasers.

Fred: analysis using absolute numbers should certainly be part of the “arsenal” of anyone doing their due diligence in this space, I would agree.

Ian: another good point – there is a time issue with the rare-earths space, for sure.

Kris (and to everyone): there are a whole bunch of metrics that one should consider when doing serious analysis of a given project. Certainly the political situation is one of them; there are a whole bunch more which Jack and I have discussed in the past (and which we should probably dust off and repost at some point soon :-) ).

I have received a number of other comments via email which I will summarize and post here tomorrow.

To all: The method does not apply at exhaustive estimation of REE deposits and is exclusively a method of a primary estimation of quality of REE ores composition from industrial point of view. It is directly reflected in the paper’s name. I wished to look at this problem by eyes of geologist having only data on all REE content at an initial stage of studying of his deposits. I was in such situation several times when it was necessary to make the decision on the further works having only analytical data. So, I have written following phrase in the last paragraph of the article partially quoted by Gareth.
«Obviously that many additional parameters – structure and depth of ore body, possibility of ore beneficiation, simplicity and degree of hydrometallurgical recovery of REE, grade and resources of metals, necessary infrastructure, level of radioactivity that determines environmental consequences of mining and processing of ore – exert an effect on the eventual estimate of the outlook of a deposit for its development. Therefore, the proposed method of evaluation based on relationships between demand and supply of individual REE should be regarded as only preliminary» (an author’s translation of the Russian version).
To Jim+Fred:. The type of plot: Y =A, X =A/B is widely used in geology and geochemistry. For example, Zr vs Zr/Hf or Nb vs Nb/Ta etc. In our case A is Crucial REE/Sum REE (crucial REE+uncrucial REE+excessive REE) in %, B – Excessive REE/Sum REE. Direct correlation between these data is absent. You have not noticed that axis X is given in logarithmic scale. Hence, if to construct the plot in the same scales as it has made Gareth, distribution of 40 deposits will be approximate by logarithmic curve. Good correlation on Gareth’s plot is caused by that he used data only for 13 deposits well known to the western readers. They get to narrow interval of values where direct correlation between Ddef and Koutl is really observed. However it is no more than a special case.
To Jim: The obvious hint that REE classification has been specially adapted to place Russian deposits in the highly promising cluster III, probably, is connected with the inattentive analysis of the plot and review also («Dr. Seredin uses forecast data published by Dudley Kingsnorth of IMCOA to determine which of the rare earths fall into which category»). By the way, the single REE deposit that is mining in Russia now (Lovozero, loparite ore), as well as some other Russian deposits, including Tomtor (the world’s largest REE deposit) have got in unpromising cluster I. Cluster III includes some Russian REE properties only together with deposits and occurrences of Australia, Canada, RSA, China, and Malaysia.
To Henk: You are absolutely right. In my opinion the problem REE recovery during mining, benefication and extraction of other minerals as by product has big importance today. In Russia, the method of by product REE recovery has developed in relation to Uranium ores of sandstone type that is mining by underground leaching. I have been studying of possibility of by product REE recovery at the coal deposits for many years. Now it is known about 20 deposits in the world with anomaly high REE content (0.1–1.2 %) in the host rocks and coal combustion wastes. These concentrations not are as high as in carbonatite REE deposits, however its often exceed REE content in ion-adsorption REE deposits (0.05–0.2 %) that is now source approximately 35 % of REE to the world market, including almost 100% of HREE and Y. If to take into consideration a high share critical REE and ion-exchangeable mode of REE occurrences typical for some REE-bearing coal deposits, REE recovery as by product looks quite really. Now this problem is active studying by Chinese scientists, and knowing everything that is made in this area, I believe that “dirty” coals can become a new source of REE for “clean” energy in the future.
To Chris: Bokan deposit (Ucore) that is not presented on my diagramme, apparently, occupies third place in the world on quality of ores (after Douglas River and Abramovka properties). REEdef in Bokan’s ores (Hole LM08-32, thickness-6.25 m) is 80.4 %, and Koutl is equal 5.5. Unfortunately I have met with the data after finishing the paper preparation.

To Jessy: Good question. I have been very surprised, when have learnt from forecast of Dudley Kingsnorth, that supply and demand of Er in 2014 will be absolutely same as for Eu, 1000 and 940 tons, respectively. It is possible to assume only, that such situation is connected with wide Er usage in military areas about which we do not have enough information. Though, it could be just a typing error. It would be good to hear Dudley’s comment on this question.

Thanks again everybody.
Vladimir Seredin

I think the REE world will follow the same pattern as is already happening in general. These days it’s happening in emerging countries and most of the Western world is in a gridlock still suffering from the financial crisis…

I predict there will come a time investors will realize it’s happening faster in countries where politicians realize there are big opportunities in REE business (i.e. the whole REE supply chain!) that cannot be missed. Again, think of South Africa, Kyrgystan, Vietnam, etc. The first mover advantage is crucial and emerging countries do realize this.

So my question is: how would people rate political stability of countries like Vietnam, South-Africa, Kyrgystan when evaluating the potential of REE deposits? Cause IMO it’s not a disadvantage at all to have deposits in those countries.

Regards,
Kris

I have not had the benefit of reading the comments received by others, so the point may have already been raised.. I would suggest that the dimension that is missed completely is how advanced a project is and the the notion of time. There is a relatively limited space for ROW production. The nature of the industry is such that it is driven by private contract so supply will be contracted for if and when it is available and the first to market will quickly change the needs going forward.

While some of the leading projects may not rate as good deposits based on the methodology, but will probably be developed because they are advanced. While others may look like winners, when you look at location and stage of developement… will there be a demand when they are ready to bring into production. So the relative rankings will change very quickly as each new producer comes on line.

The method may work for well more traditional metals. For rare earths, with the notion of time to market, it may be a bit less so.

Until soon… Ian