thanks,
chalie

@charlie: the export of alloys and other rare-earth-based compounds has taken place for years. There is really nothing new in those articles, and I find it a little strange that the implication is that companies making the ribbons / melt-spun materials, used for permanent magnets, are somehow trying to circumvent the system. The same goes with strip-cast alloys that Japanese companies have produced in China, for use in their permanent magnets.

http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story.asp?storyid=%7B8ca5cc1c-a58c-4e4a-9d7d-4a995174f43f%7D&src=main

http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?cid=1102&MainCatID=11&id=20120116000010

thanks,
charlie

I would like to know, in general, what is the economic / strategic, importance of the peripheral elements of the Periodic Table, SC, Y.
Thank you,
Best regards,
Alberto

@Roger: neither the official export statistics nor the quota allocations really take into account the volume of exports that take place unofficially / illegally. Some estimated put this additional “channel” for these materials at 10-15 ktpa.

@G H: I’ve said for some time that a comprehensive effort to curb pollution and to otherwise control environmental issues in this industry, will require reductions in overall production quotas, not export quotas. Presumably the recent division into confirmed and provisional allocations of quota is meant as a carrot from the commercial point of view, since exports have recently commanded higher prices. But I would agree that the effects here are going to be very short lived.

@fran: Is there really an impact? Something else that I’ve said before is that I believe that the only effect that the export quotas have had on exports is on the price of the material being exported. If you are an end user in Japan, Germany or wherever, you can get material, of any kind. It won’t necessarily come via officially sanctioned channels, and it might not have been mined recently, but I see no evidence of real supply constraints for these materials.

@Andy: there is significant evidence of substantial demand destruction in 2011 as a result of the elevated export prices. The story of rare-earth exports is really the story of lanthanum and cerium exports. We saw successful efforts by a number of end users to move away from usage of these materials.

As for halting production – there are likely to still be significant inventories of these materials warehoused in China and elsewhere. I therefore see little chance that any halt in production would lead to reduced exports of finished goods.

Within a year, we should have two new major sources of light rare earths on-stream. When that happens, any export quotas still being imposed by China for light rare earths, will have decreasing relevance to the supply chain.

@John: I’ve not seen any recent announcements on either rare-earth mining or production quotas.

@Mike Niehuser: I don’t think the rare-earth sector is any different to other commodities – as prices went up, demand decreased, especially for the light rare earths. Also, you have to look at quota allocations on a year-on-year basis – not comparing, for example H1 2011 with H2 2010. That’s not how the system works – allocations are made at the beginning of a given year, with “top ups” in the second half of the year; those first half quota allocations still pertain to the whole year. I don’t see high prices coming later in 2012, especially not for light rare earths.

As for HREE quotas compared to prior years – the quotas were not broken out that way before, so it’s not possible to do the comparison. You might see some clues in the way the production quotas have previously been allocated, since those have previously been allocated on a L / HREE basis.