Comments on: The First Round Of Chinese Rare-Earth Export-Quota Allocations For 2013

By: nicolas pietrangelo

nicolas pietrangelo — Fri, 01 Feb 2013 10:09:18 +0000

Again, I will make an attempt on Lithium vs NIMH batteries and the involvement of rare earths in the NIMH. Unless I am misinformed terribly and living in a cave, I think we are witnessing the slow demise of the Lithium based batteries, at LEAST it seems that way in the transportation sector(planes-how much more bad news can occur/cars sales are anemic viz a vie Volt from GM and Leaf from Nissan). In the general press there have been several ref. to replacement of Lithium-ion batteries with NIMH(in particular Prof of Chemistry Donald Sadoway world expert in batteries from M.I.T.). The enormous success of the Toyota Prius program and the recent acquisition of Ovonic battery and Cobasys from BASF and R.Bosch respectively would indicate some very REAL activity in the NIMH sector and the associated major usage of rare earths(lanthanum in particular). The Lithium technologies have been hyped for yrs in ALL sectors, performance/safety have been suspect from the beginning. Now with ENORMOUS SAFETY issues Costs will skyrocket to manage both thermal and electrical issues with battery management systems. And the ever present LEGAL and INSURANCE(I have 40 plus yrs in the medical industry) their behavour is VERY predicable BILLABLE HOURS and RISK MANAGEMENT. Who really cares about weight to power ratio, it will be out-weighed by COST!!!!

By: nicolas pietrangelo

nicolas pietrangelo — Thu, 24 Jan 2013 00:37:58 +0000

Well Garth here we are a few weeks hence from questions in Dec 2012 and your response very early part of Jan. and the BOMB that was laid with the Boeing Dreamliner battery fires (2) fires in two different planes and two different functions-electrical storage up front and starter for APU unit in the rear/and now with grounding of ALL 787 planes. Also mentioned in the Cessana Citation Li-ion fire and the 2006 fire explosion at the testing facilities of Securaplane, Tuscon,Az for Boeing again with Li-ion. This rings of the Ralph Nader book “Unsafe at any speed”. Link this with ALL the problems GM/Fisker and others have had with Li-ion in the automotive sector. Who cares about the Lithium wt density of energy storage. Oh I forgot the MULTIPLE cargo planes carrying Lithium batteries in their jumbo cargo bays UPS x (2) 747 jumbos and Air asia 747 cargo disaster in the Pacific. The Lithium based battery will be under EVERBODIES microscope now.

By: Gareth Hatch

Gareth Hatch — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 15:49:33 +0000

@Christina Chen: Happy New Year to you too! We don’t have the numbers for the full 2012 year, but based on preliminary numbers the percentage used was indeed much lower than the quota set, as in previous years.

@nicolas pietrangelo: I’ve always seen the use of REEs in magnet materials (Nd + Pr, Dy) as a much greater driving force for the future development of the sector as a whole, with usage in batteries secondary. Pound for pound, kilogram for kilogram, the electrical machines with the highest power / torque density contain Nd-Fe-B-based permanent magnets. At current and near-term cost projections, these types of machines will almost certainly increase in usage, for all types of electric vehicles. Despite reservations about Li-ion batteries, it seems that many auto makers are determined to keep going with them…

@P. LOGANATHAN: I would expect LREE prices to follow expected patterns should there be an increase in supply to the market – i.e. down. But let’s not forget that we are still 2-3 times higher with these prices than we were just 3 years ago.

@Jake Q: you can compare the data above with those from last year here: http://bit.ly/Rzx3se

By: Jake Q.

Jake Q. — Wed, 02 Jan 2013 15:24:52 +0000

Do you have a comparison of H/M vs. Light from 2012 to 2013?

By: P. LOGANATHAN

P. LOGANATHAN — Sat, 29 Dec 2012 04:19:10 +0000

Dear Gareth,

Thanks for the information on China’s H1 2013 RE quotas. With LYNAS coming on-line in Gebeng, Malaysia, in the same year, would you take a guess and how the LREE prices are going to affected?

By: nicolas pietrangelo

nicolas pietrangelo — Fri, 28 Dec 2012 21:56:19 +0000

Garth your opinion on the hybrid electrics both gasoline-hybrids of Japan(Toyota etc.) and it looks like the diesel/gasoline hybrids now coming out of Germany(VW and BMW will intro seven new EV models in 2013 alone). I know this will be a mix of both the proven NIMH battery and the highly talked about Lithium technologies whose real world success has been less that stellar across the board-Chevy Volt-Tesla-Fisker for example. These auto intros plus the fact that the Germans now have Varta/Cobasys-Bosch/Ovonic battery-BASF who along with the Japanese(Prime Earth Energy-80% Toyota 20% Panasonic) and their success with the Prius family of cars, how does this SUBSTANTIAL activity influence the rare earth universe especially lanthanum/terbium/dysprosium/and neodynium for both batteries and super-magnets?? Pure electrics have not taken off/plug-in electrics just starting/hybrids-electrics a ROARING success. Only a guess but with new diesel electrics going with synthetic fuels from nat gas and coal 100 plus MPG should be well in the ball park and sooner rather than later. Thanks Nick Harding energy.

By: christina CHen

christina CHen — Fri, 28 Dec 2012 21:06:15 +0000

Hi Gareth,
Thanks for the info.
Do you have the data for the percentage usage of the quote? In the past I learned that each year the quote was not fully used.
Best wishes for a prosper New Year!
Christina