Comments on: The First Round of Chinese Rare-Earth Export-Quota Allocations for 2014 https://www.techmetalsresearch.net/the-first-round-of-chinese-rare-earth-export-quota-allocations-for-2014/ Commentary & analysis on rare earths and other technology metals Fri, 25 Apr 2014 13:08:44 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.2 By: Tim Ainsworth https://www.techmetalsresearch.net/the-first-round-of-chinese-rare-earth-export-quota-allocations-for-2014/#comment-10772 Fri, 25 Apr 2014 13:08:44 +0000 https://www.techmetalsresearch.net/?p=6958#comment-10772 Thnx Gareth, Hongpo has now provided a much clearer summary than the Bloomberg presentation, although I’m presuming “Ore” should read “Oxides”.
Would be interesting to get a summary of “processed Products” nonetheless.
Some very interesting take outs there, US predominance & La demand for one. Appears at least the ROW catalyst business has a pulse, no doubt the WTO will turn up for a photo op.

]]> By: Gareth Hatch https://www.techmetalsresearch.net/the-first-round-of-chinese-rare-earth-export-quota-allocations-for-2014/#comment-9412 Tue, 22 Apr 2014 13:07:17 +0000 https://www.techmetalsresearch.net/?p=6958#comment-9412 @Tim: I note that the reported 13.46 kt includes “products” made from REEs. This may well include Nd-Fe-B magnetic powders and alloys and other REE-containing compounds. These latter materials are subject to export tariffs but are not subject to export quotas, and so would not “count” towards the H1 quotas that you mentioned.

]]> By: Tim Ainsworth https://www.techmetalsresearch.net/the-first-round-of-chinese-rare-earth-export-quota-allocations-for-2014/#comment-9339 Tue, 22 Apr 2014 09:47:38 +0000 https://www.techmetalsresearch.net/?p=6958#comment-9339 Gareth,
Bloomberg is reporting Q1 RE exports at 13.46kt + Metals 7.17kt, apparently taken from the General Administration of Customs website: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-21/china-s-march-rare-earth-exports-table-.html?cmpid=yhoo
Am I missing something here or would that not put exports up against H1 quotas right about now?
Lynas’s March 14 presentation estimated 12ktpa exports for the La product group alone but even so the bloomberg numbers would appear extraordinary.
Appreciate your thoughts.

]]> By: Gareth Hatch https://www.techmetalsresearch.net/the-first-round-of-chinese-rare-earth-export-quota-allocations-for-2014/#comment-6593 Tue, 17 Dec 2013 16:52:25 +0000 https://www.techmetalsresearch.net/?p=6958#comment-6593 @ozziegeorge: it’s important to note that the actual amount of REEs shipped last year (through official channels at least), was much lower than the export quota of 31,000 t. It’s likely to be the same situation this year.

@SteveC: yes, the elusive piece of the puzzle is the “off-the-books” shipment number, for sure. I also agree that the “forgotten issue” is what happens to rare-earth oxides produced outside of China, that generally need to be in metallic or alloy form before they can be used (e.g. for magnets). Since there is very little capacity for such transformations outside of China, some portion of it would have to go to China. However, once transformed into a semi-finished or finished alloy or compound (e.g. NdFeB) then it would not be subject to export quotas ( though there would still be duties payable when exported).

]]> By: SteveC https://www.techmetalsresearch.net/the-first-round-of-chinese-rare-earth-export-quota-allocations-for-2014/#comment-6572 Mon, 16 Dec 2013 16:33:28 +0000 https://www.techmetalsresearch.net/?p=6958#comment-6572 Gareth,
Solid information on the rare earths is appreciated. Thank you.

It would be enlightening to have two more pieces of the puzzle:
1) Actual exports of rare earths from China which generally have been below quotas (of course, some off-the-books)
2) clarification on the supply chain for sources of rare earths coming from outside of China

The second issue is terribly important in that some materials are used as oxides and therefore may be used directly from e.g., Molycorp or Lynas, while metals and alloys require additional processing which is as yet dominated by China and that once rare earth oxides enter China that they become part of the quota system!?

Cheers, Steve

]]> By: ozziegeorge https://www.techmetalsresearch.net/the-first-round-of-chinese-rare-earth-export-quota-allocations-for-2014/#comment-6556 Sun, 15 Dec 2013 22:19:28 +0000 https://www.techmetalsresearch.net/?p=6958#comment-6556 Gareth,
I’m neither on the technical side nor a large player, but would like to know… does this lowering of export quotas mean that the unfilled demand will be drawn from miners/producers from the rest of the world (where the companies in which I do hold interests are)?
Kind regards.

]]> By: Gareth Hatch https://www.techmetalsresearch.net/the-first-round-of-chinese-rare-earth-export-quota-allocations-for-2014/#comment-6551 Sat, 14 Dec 2013 23:43:34 +0000 https://www.techmetalsresearch.net/?p=6958#comment-6551 OK – a further update: I have received further clarification on the MOFCOM announcement – apparently it indicates that first-round quota allocations for antimony, indium, molybdenum, silver, tin and tungsten will be 70% of their respective annual quotas for 2014, but that this will NOT be the case for rare earths. So – it will remain to be seen what the total will be in 2014, compared to 2013.

]]> By: hackenzac https://www.techmetalsresearch.net/the-first-round-of-chinese-rare-earth-export-quota-allocations-for-2014/#comment-6550 Sat, 14 Dec 2013 20:56:02 +0000 https://www.techmetalsresearch.net/?p=6958#comment-6550 Related news? Maybe, considering recent B-52 flyovers.
http://kuow.org/post/china-imposes-first-ever-west-coast-shellfish-ban

]]> By: Gareth Hatch https://www.techmetalsresearch.net/the-first-round-of-chinese-rare-earth-export-quota-allocations-for-2014/#comment-6549 Sat, 14 Dec 2013 14:35:37 +0000 https://www.techmetalsresearch.net/?p=6958#comment-6549 @Allen: as you know, the export quotas do not reflect the reality of actual rare-earth exports from China, given the quantities that are exported outside of official channels.

Sticking with the quotas though for a moment, if Inner Mongolia Baotou Hefa Rare Earth Co. is allocated a quota as part of the first round, and if it was similar to last year (455 t) then the total first allocation would be 15,565 t. If 15,565 t represents 70% of the total quota for 2014, then we could expect 22,236 t for next year. That represents less than 72% of the 2013 number. Either way, the numbers for 2014 are likely to be significantly lower than 2013.

]]> By: Allan Branch https://www.techmetalsresearch.net/the-first-round-of-chinese-rare-earth-export-quota-allocations-for-2014/#comment-6544 Sat, 14 Dec 2013 04:05:44 +0000 https://www.techmetalsresearch.net/?p=6958#comment-6544 My thanks too Gareth, a nice tight and timely summary. It is also possible that the 70% is not correct, and if so it is hard to determine if the real figure will be higher or lower, whether the Chinese keep more or sell more. In the distant past they have sold more to keep downward pressure on prices, to remove competition, then changed in an attempt to bring prices up, which did not work, so it is anyone’s guess, and I agree with Simon Dalton that there may be missing data yet.

Happy festive season TechMetals, Allan..

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