I was wondering how you view Frontier Rare Earths now that almost 2 years have passed. Do you believe they still have a viable project? Furthermore, are you concerned at all about delays in the PFS and estimated time until production?

pardon the typos

Jack

(just kidding)

I had asked the question in light of this article discussing the Rare Earth situation beyond 2015, ie”dramatic events over the next few years”, not if it happened tomorrow. And I finished with, “Such a question is of course negligible in consequence to what such dramatic events would mean to international economies.”

You have clearly stated that you believe China will become an importer of REEs at some point in the future, which would have the net affect of iincreasing demand for non Chinese REE producers . In my opinion that in itself could be construed a dramatic event compared to the current quotas for export where only aout half are actually bought. So, if I may restate, ” If any events conspire to dramatically reduce China’s export of REEs by 2015, and thereafter, what would this mean to companies like Metamec, Lynas, Molycorp, GWG/LCM/GWTI, and potential facilities like IMC?

Tekton,

Keep in mind that the overwhelming GLOBAL demand for rare earth downstream products at the metals level is more than 80% within China. The production of rare earth permanent magnets within China consumes more than 60% of the world’s total production of neodymium and praseodymium and most likely nearly 80% of the world’s (China’s) production of dysprosium.
If today China STOPPED all production of REEs the end user market would collapse since the rest of the world has NO CAPACITY EXISTING or under immediate construction to replace the downstream total supply chain, separating, refining, producing metals, alloys, or magnets, capacity currently operating or available within China.
The extremely limited capability in the west to design and construct solvent exchange plants, for example, would mean in the “What if” scenario you posit the end of the large scale use of REEs.
Subsidized small mining/refining/fabricating operations would probably keep the NATO militarily going along with subsidized recycling.
If the Chinese economy has a hard landing REEs will be the least of the world’s worries.
I wouldn’t give you a nickel today for any share in any “advanced” company if the Chinese stop REE production altogether. I think the total supply chain outside of China is finally being reborn, so that within 2-3 years there will be a significant inroad into Chinese monopolization of the REE space. Until then…

Jack

Watching Fareed Zakaria this morning having a discussion with three experts on China, they all seemed in agreement tha China is on the cusp of some dramatic events over the next few years, and it is the inertia of the current system that has primarily slowed the progress of possible catastrophe. The concern that comes out of this is the big “What If”: What, if China reduced or stopped REE production due to internal conflicts, would it do to, or for, non Chinese miners and potential SX facilities, and share prices of the more advanced companies?
Such a question is of course negligible in consequence to what such dramatic events would mean to international economies.

if you mean “what are the ORE/REO rates listed in the comment prior to yours they are the stripping ratios. This means that for example, on average, Lynas must raise 14 tons of ore to obtain a maximum of 1 ton of rare earth oxides.

This can be a misleading measure on a stand-alone basis, because it makes it look as if Great Western is the clear winner. But if one takes into account that Great Western’s deposit has a net total of less than 50,000 tons of proven resources while Lynas’ deposit has millions of tons… On the other hand one must note that GW’s ore contains a much higher percentage of the critical rare earths than does Lynas, so its ore concentrate’s value is higher per ton…Also GW has to move a lot less rock to get product.

Obviously there are many, many factors to consider and not all of them are objective numbers either.

Notwithstanding that, however, I will venture to say that a stripping ration of 400:1 is not likely to be viable unless the project is one like the Chinese absorption clays where the “grade” of the material to be “processed” is at best 200-400:1 but the CREEs are present in unusually high ratios to the total rare earths present and there are no radioactive species to contend with.

I hope this helps.

Jack

Lynas Corporation Ltd. 14:1
Arafura Resources Ltd. (ASX:ARU) 35:1
Frontier Rare Earths Ltd. (TSX:FRO) 46:1
Rare Element Resources Ltd. (TSX.V:RES) 29:1
Great Western Minerals 8:1
Molycorp 15:1