I am an analyst of the market fundamentals, and the end uses, and the future trends of the end uses of the technology metals. I estimate the probability of success of a mining venture and report it as the likelihood that it will produce the metal(s) in its deposit(s) economically, and in a time frame that will allow it to be financed by those who expect a return on their investment in a reasonable time. I utilize a comprehensive set of metrics of my own design, which I am considering making available to a wider audience early in 2010.
I am not a stock picker, but I know that some investors will see my probability of success figure as a measure of the value of the venture being analyzed. I actually make my estimates of the probability of success for:
- End users making long term strategic plans;
- Procurement officers looking to issue off-takes and trying to quantify the risk of non-production;
- Institutional investors doing long term mining finance; and
- Governmental policy makers.
I am a paid consultant to institutional investors, private investors, and both public and private companies. In the interests of objectivity I do not own shares in any publicly or privately traded company at all, in any sector in which I provide analysis or commentary. I am paid only for my time. I gladly respond to inquiries from national and local governments for advice or help, and I am not always paid even my expenses for trips to Washington, D.C. I prefer to be paid for my travel expenses to conferences where I am only a speaker, but that is not always possible. I therefore chose my speaking engagements carefully.
Above all I want to continue to be a disinterested observer and I place my principles above all. I am trying to give informed advice about the rare metals sector to everyone whose life is impacted directly by what goes on in that sector. This may from time to time offend some who are dedicated to only making money and sometimes feel that they have to bend the truth to uphold their “shareholder value.”
So be it.